The Dow is up and I’m getting nervous.
Capitalism is sleeping at the switch. Big explosion coming, but I think that we’re missing some of the clues that will be obvious later.
As I talk with CEOs and CFOs, there is a common theme of “we’re hunkered down, and going to make it if we don’t take chances or make bad decisions.” Fine with me. The problem comes in a two-part storm that is coming.
The first clue are the low turnover numbers. Nobody is going anywhere, fast. The normal “breathing” of the job market has stopped. The normal movement of high performers from place to place is not happening.
High performers have long had careers based on a project world, and when a project is done they either move internally to a new challenge, or move over to another organization. This is a group of people that seldom have an updated resume, both because they are moving quickly, and because their next employer already knows them and does not need a resume. (Low performers ALWAYS have updated resumes…)
Therefore, pressure is building for movement within the ranks of high performers. When the “coast is clear” for movement, it will happen quickly.
The second driver of the coming explosion is health care. When – not if – our nation figures out a way to get everyone insured with baseline medical care, the handcuffs that are holding people to jobs that they do not like will be dropped. The good news is there will be an explosion of entrepreneurial energy as the barrier of health care will be lowered. Bankers will open flower shops. HR professionals will become consultants or change professions completely, knowing that they can focus on service delivery and not worry about their health care.
The scary part is that I am confident a large percentage of dis-engaged high performers in our organizations will choose to set up their own businesses. This removes them from the available labor pool. They don’t leave the economy, but you can’ t hire them.
Here is the really scary part. Both of these storms are probably going to happen at about the same time. When the Dow gets back above, say 12,000, kapow. When health care gets implemented, kapow. If they both happen in the same quarter, kablooie.
So, what are you doing to stay dry? I have some ideas…would love to hear yours.
Karl Ahlrichs' Uncommon Experience 
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